Definition of Recession and the Predicted Recession in the Malaysian economy

Definition of Recession and the Predicted Recession in the Malaysian economy What is economic recession? Economic recession is defined as a decline in the countrys Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for about two or more consecutive quarters in a particular year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) consists of the monies spent by consumers, the investments made by private companies and the government, government spending on labor and products, and the net total of a countrys exports. As a part of a normal business lifecycle, when an economy that grows over a period of time tends to slow down. An economy typically grows for 6 to 10 years and later is likely to go into a recession for about 6 months to 2 years. Thus, economic recession is a declining phase of the business life cycle when there decline in economic activities spread across the economy, lasting for more than a couple of months, normally visible in Gross Domestic Product or GDP, employment, real income, industrial production and wholesale or retail sales. A recession has many characteristics that can occur simultaneously and can include declines in real-time measures of overall economic activities. Recessions are the result of reduction in the demand and may also be associated with falling prices also known as deflation, or on the other hand it could also be due to increasing prices also known as inflation or a combination of increasing prices and stagnant economic growth. A prolonged or severe recession is referred to as an economic depression. Although the difference between a recession and a depression is not clearly stated, it is often believed that a decline in Gross Domestic Product or GDP of more than 10% constitutes a depression. The cause of an economic recession primarily depends on the actions taken to control the money supply in an economy. The Federal Reserve is the agency responsible for maintaining the delicate balance between money supply, interest rates, and inflation. When this delicate balance is tipped, the economy is forced to correct itself. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve sometimes deals with these situations by dumping huge amounts of money supply into the money market. This helps to keep interest rates low, even as inflation rises. Inflation is the rise in the prices of goods and services over a period of time. So, if inflation is increasing, it means that goods and services are costing more now than they did before. The higher the level of inflation, the smaller the percentage of goods and services is which can be bought with a certain amount of money. There can be many contributing factors for inflation, which include but are not limited to increased costs of production, higher costs of energy and the national debt. In an environment where inflation is prevalent, people tend to cut out things like leisure spending. They also budget more, spend less on things they usually indulge in, and start saving more money than they did. As people and businesses start finding ways to cut costs and derail unneeded expenditures, the GDP begins to decline. Then, unemployment rates will rise because companies start lying off workers to cut more costs, because consumers are not spending like they were. It is these combined factors that manage to drive the economy into a state of recession. An economic recession can be expected before it actually happens. There are many ways to spot a recession before it actually happens. For instance, by observing the changing economic landscapes in quarters that come before the actual onset we can predict whether a recession is about to occur or not. You will still see GDP growth, but it will be coupled with signs like high unemployment levels, housing price declines, stock market losses, and the absence of business expansion. When an economy sees more extended periods of economic recession, it goes beyond a recession and is declared that the economy is in a state of depression. On the other hand, the benefit of an economic recession is that it will help to cure inflation. As a matter of fact, the delicate balancing act that the Federal Reserve struggles to pursue is to slow the growth of the economy enough so that inflation will not occur, but also so that a recession will not be triggered in the process. Now, the Federal Reserve performs this balancing act without the help of fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is usually trying to stimulate the economy as much as is possible through such things as lowering taxes, spending on programs, and ignoring account deficits. Currently the global economy is facing a downturn; In Malaysia the economy has been spotted declining since the first-half of 2008 .This decline may spell bad news for us as it may result as a recession. However, it has been predicted by the government that the economy is not going to be insulated from the global downturn. It was clearly stated by the current Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi that Malaysia would be able to weather the storm brought on by the U.S. credit crisis as we still have strong economic fundamentals as well as being politically stable. In his statement he said We have very strong reserves, our surplus is still strong, our domestic savings are also very high and our currency is also stable and not subject to fluctuation, He also said We have the strength and the resilience of Malaysians as we have faced it before and our banking system is still strong, theres stability in the country and predictability in terms whats going to develop politically,. The Prime Minister admitted that it was not going to be easy, but with good cooperation with the public and the government our country could get through the recession with not much damage. On the other hand, it has also been predicted that the Malaysian economy will most probably see a full blown recession this year given the steep deterioration in recent economic activities both locally and globally. Based on an article in The Star Online of 5th March 2009, it was predicted that the economy may contract by1.19% in 2009. It was clearly stated in the phrase A poll of economists expectations for 2009 projects the economy would contract by 1.19% this year as the slump in exports and slowing domestic demand bite hard especially in the first half of the year. However, there were also predictions that the contractions of the Malaysian economy would be temporary and would recover later in this year. The Affin Investment Bank economist Alan Tan said The first half will be weak but I am expecting stabilization late in the year on a recovery in exports and domestic demand. This statement was also supported by another statement by the RHB Investment Bank Bhd economist Peck Boon S oon, however this time the economy was predicted to rebound in 2010. The table below shows the forecast growth of the Gross Domestic Product by Malaysias top financial institutes. Besides that, in view of the deteriorating global economy and as a step to be ready for an economic recession, the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia) has lately reduced the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 3.25 per cent. Its clearly stated in the Malaysian Economy-Update Blog that the Malaysian economy is getting or expecting to get worse if no monetary and fiscal policy changes. To add liquidity into the system and reduce the cost of funds, the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) has been cut from 4.0 per cent to 3.5 per cent effective Dec08. If domestic conditions worsen, amid subsiding inflation, the OPR may be slashed to 3.0 per cent or even lower. The reduction of interest rate has to be done cautiously as it may unintentionally lead to a weaker ringgit that would push up the cost of imports. The deficit fiscal target for 2009 has also been raised to 4.8 per cent of GDP, from 3.6 per cent previously. This may be justified as difficult times call for drastic measures. However, there are concerns that government revenue would be adversely affected by the falling commodity prices, which could subsequently enlarge the deficit to even exceed 5.0 per cent of GDP. All of this signs clearly states that the Malaysian economy is going into a recession. The graph below shows the decline of the GDP growth. The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) has also defined Malaysias current economic situation as a recession. Based on the article in the Malaysian Economy-Update Blog dated 5th of March 2009, MIER says Malaysia stands on the brink of recession as falling demand hits exports and manufacturing with growth expected to reach 0.5% this year. MIER forecast the economic growth for first half of 2009 will be negative which will put Malaysia in a technical recession, but will show positive figures in the second half of 2009. The Executive Director of MIER Mohamaed Ariff said overall, it will be 0.5% growth for this year in the best-case scenario. The worst-case scenario is there is a 50% chance of a full-blown recession this year. Furthermore, this has also lead to the reduction of employments which results in the downfall in the Consumer Sentiments Index (CSI). This is shown in the graph below. Based on all the evidence provided above, it could be seen that the current Malaysian economy is going into a downfall and may result in a recession. Even though the government has not officially declared a recession its very important for us to be ready to face one as we do not know how bad it may result as. The predicted contraction of the economy by 1.19% will be one of the major causes of the recession as there will be a massive reduction in exports and domestic demands. The reduction of the Overnight Policy Rate by the Central Bank (Bank Negara Malaysia) is also one of the signs that Malaysia is going into a recession, this is because the reduction of the Overnight Policy Rate would result in the reduction of the GDP growth because less money would be invested in the economy and would lead to the downfall of the economy. On the other hand, as stated by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) the reduction of employments and downfall of the Consumer Sentiments Index (CSI) shows that Malaysia would be facing a recession. However, as said by our respected Prime Minister, the downfall that is about to be faced by our country may not last long as, because Malaysia has very strong reserves, high domestic savings and also our currency is quite stable. This forecast recession is predicted to rebound in the third or fourth quarter this year this year or latest by 2010. To sum it all up, a recession is not an event that is waited for, however its a part of a normal business lifecycle and its natural for it to occur in an economy every 6 to 10 years once. The best step to take during a recession is to minimize all of our expenditures and save as much as we can. Therefore we should always be prepared to face such situations as we may not know how bad the recession may be and how long it may last.

Helping the Little Children Essay -- Personal Narrative Essays

Helping the Little Children    I feel the pounding footsteps under my feet and the intense air rush past me as I run, squirming to keep my posture. I struggle to stay glued to the beast's side. If I miss one crucial step, it may mean tragedy for this innocent little disabled boy. I stay close to Dakota's ribs as we move into the turn. Relieved, I gasp for the warm mountain air as we slow to a walk. With my arms still extended above my head, I smile at the partially toothless grin.    As I drive my topless jeep, rounding bend after bend, I find myself staring at the lightly snow-capped mountains in the distance. I run my hands through my windblown hair and notice nature's brilliant autumn colored aspen patterns whiz past me.    Just over the ridge, I casually pull into Chris Turpin's leaf covered driveway. To my left, stands a squatty farm house that has dirty tan siding with dark brown trim, topped with a new forest green metal roof. The few windows the house displays are abnormally small and are always dark. The simple wood siding, though patched with dust and cob webs, has a neat, serene air to it. A branch-covered lawn, which looks as though it has not been mowed in weeks, makes a narrow ring around the house. To my right, stands a pole barn with no solid sides, rising far above the many tarnished orange corrals surrounding it. The barn is just old enough to have collected a nice assortment of ragged bird nests in its rafters, but the wood is not yet discolored. The barn encloses a small rectangular arena, which has one corner rounded off by an old log. In the spare corner is an ancient water faucet and invincible weeds. Extending from the east side of the barn are large corrals... ...e highest mountain when he grows up. Even though he hurts whenever he moves now, he has such an incredible desire to reach this goal and make his dreams come true. I believe he will someday fulfill his dream, and it will be a result of the magic that happens at this very place. It is just a quaint farm house with a rickety barn and a handful of hospitable souls all put together to create something incredible.    However, this place is not just a place for disabled children's dreams to come true, it is a place for my dreams to come true as well. This is a place I feel I am needed and truly inspired to reach my highest goals. It was here I discovered my gift of helping disabled children, and it was here that I learned to slow down for the turns in my life and enjoy the ride. Someday I will create my own TER Program; that is my dream.      

Explore Blake’s Chimney Sweeper poems from the Songs of Innocence and the Songs of Experience Essay

In this essay I am going to explore Blake’s Chimney Sweeper poems from the Songs of Innocence and the Songs of Experience. During this essay I will cover Blake’s life and times and the way chimney sweepers get treated around that time and what Blake attempts to do about it. Blake was born on November 28 in the year 1757. His parents where strict but understanding. Blake’s parents realised early in his life that Blake was gifted. He had an extremely active imagination and he often got visions. At only four years old he claimed he had seen God in one of these visions. Another time when he was with one of his friends he envisaged angels filling a tree. He horridly told his family what he saw but the response he got from his father was quite negative. His father threatened to whip him because he believed it was time for him to grow up. However his mother took Blake’s side and when she asked him about it he stated that the angels took the form of his thoughts. This vision was stuck with him and was extremely influential in his life. Blake obviously had a gift for seeing things with his eyes and in his imagination. He used his artwork to express his experiences. When Blake turned ten years of age his parents decided to enrol him into a drawing school. Later on in his life Blake used his talent as an artist to become a apprentice engraver. Throughout Blake’s life he had a dislike for nasty, unfair people especially towards those that had power and money like those in the government, and those that where associated with the church. Blake also could not stand power abusers and bad unfair treatment towards the poor, young and elderly. In the time of William Blake chimney sweepers went through a torrid time, it was as if they where young slaves. The age of the infants varied between five years old to the age of eight or nine if they could be fit up the chimneys. They where often bought off parents for as little a à ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½2, in some cases however they may be purchased for à ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½5 but it is still a despicable price to pay for a young child. In the extreme cases the chimney sweepers where stole from family’s. When the sweeps had lost the use around the age of seven they get passed over to the church. Blake despised the serious health problems the sweeps got from this demanding life of threatening work. Most sweeps after only a short time of working in the chimneys end up with twisted kneecaps, ankles and even spines from crawling up the extremely cramped chimneys. There was even such a thing as â€Å"chimney sweeps cancer† which they got from the soot irritating there skin. Again we can see why Blake hates the idea of chimney sweepers and there treatment, they are forced to do inhumane things that even animals would never be told to do. The master sweeps imbedded fear into the young brains and subjected them to clean chimneys. They where made to live in the most inhabitable of conditions. They often slept on soot bags in dirty wet cellars. The sweeps where forced to clean the chimneys if they refused or could not fit up the chimneys they where punished by the fire being lit, slaps, prodding with poles and various other instruments and pricking of the bottoms of their feet. All this just so the master sweep can make an easy living from the poor misfortune of innocent children. Blake strongly disagreed with the treatment of the sweeps so much he wrote two beautiful poems about their treatment, these featured in two separate books, Songs of Innocence and Songs of Experience. The first chimney sweeper poem is from the Songs of Innocence, Blake shows a strong message through his poems, and they sometimes come across light hearted like nursery rhymes. But often, if not all the time they have a dark sinister meaning. This is the beginning of Chimney sweeper 1 and straight away Blake invites the reader to feel sympathy for the situation the family is in. It shows how poor the family is, it gets so bad the father has to sell his child to get some money to keep the rest of the family going. This reflects on the state of working class people of that time. â€Å"When my mother died I was very young, And my father sold me while yet my tongue.† The boy is sold so young that it has not even developed the ability to speak properly; in the poem he â€Å"Could scarcely cry â€Å"weep! weep! weep! weep!† The boy could be crying in this passage or he could be trying to say the word sweep but is unable because of his age. This is clever by Blake because the passage has a double meaning; this carries on throughout the poem. The effect of the first stanza is to bring the reader into perspective of what lengths of desperation the families go to, to earn a small amount of money. In the second stanza the audience is introduced to Tom Dacre, his hair is shaved off and Tom is very upset about this. Blake feels very strongly about the dehumanisation of people and shows this in his poems. Blake compares Tom to a lamb because a lamb is innocent like the chimney sweeps and is also a form of sacrificial animal so it is showing there inability to have there own personality and independence. â€Å"There’s little Tom Dacre, who cried when his head, That curl’d like a lamb’s back, was shav’d† The final part of this stanza represents the pureness of Tom Dacre. The soot represents the master sweeps trying to make him impure but the white hair represents how innocent Tom is. The effect of this stanza is to bring across the innocents of the sweeps to the audience. â€Å"Hush, Tom! Never mind it, for when your heads bare, You know the soot cannot spoil your white hair.† The third stanza is when Tom has a dream; in his dream he has visions of thousands of dead sweeps. The coffins of black represent a enclosed environment with dead sweeps covered in black soot. Blake involves the fact that thousands of chimney sweepers died to once again show the audience what really goes on. â€Å"That thousands of sweepers, Dick, Joe, Ned, & Jack, Were all of them lock’d up in coffins of black.† In Stanza four Tom Dacre is still in his dream and an Angel comes to set him free, this represents the chimney sweeps being liberated from their life of peril. â€Å"And by came an Angel who had a bright key, And he open’d the coffins & set them all free† Then Blake goes on in the conclusion of this stanza to contrast there life when they are trapped being made to go up chimneys, to being let to run free and be there own boss. It is everything they can not do when working as a chimney sweeper. Blake mentions that they wash in the river, this symbolises that they have left that dark past behind them and are moving on. This stanza has a light hearted mood and shows everything that the chimney sweepers can not have. In the fifth stanza Blake brings his feelings about the church through. The unfairness and manipulative abilities the church is shown in this stanza. â€Å"And the Angel told Tom, if he’d be a good boy, He’d have God for his father, & never want joy.† This means basically that if you do not sin you get to go to heaven. The angel represents the heartless church who manipulate through fear. This is what Blake is strongly against. In the final stanza of the first poem the boys go back to work after Tom wakes and have to work in poor conditions. â€Å"And so Tom awoke; and we rose in the dark, And got with our bags & our brushes to work.† In the end of the last stanza Blake makes it seems as if it has finished on a high note, however Blake doesn’t believe in this naive belief. â€Å"So if they do all their duty, they need not fear harm.† That was the first of the two chimney sweeper poems, throughout this poem Blake says one thing but if you look deeper into it, it has a much deeper sinister meaning. The second chimney sweeper poem is from the Songs of Experience this poem has a different angle that the first poem. Stanza one, The Chimney Sweeper 2 begins like this; â€Å"A little black thing among the snow, Crying â€Å"weep! ‘weep!† in notes of woe! â€Å"Where are thy father & mother? Say†Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"They are both gone up to church to pray.† Blake represents the chimney sweeper in the first part, calling it â€Å"A little black thing among the snow,† To Blake the â€Å"black† represents the sweep all dirty and tainted. And calling it a â€Å"thing† dehumanizes the sweep. Blake wrote, â€Å"A little black thing among the snow† because the chimney sweeper is tainting society which is the white snow. Blake uses the same words from The Chimney Sweeper 1, in this poem for the same effect, to show the young boy upset, confused. â€Å"Crying â€Å"weep! ‘weep!†Ã¢â‚¬  At this point in the poem the audience can not tell who is speaking. I believe it is the poor people; they are represented as chimney sweepers. The chimney sweeper is lost in society, represented by the snow. The government which is represented by the chimney sweeper’s parents is ignorant to reality. Blake has used the situation in the poem to express his feelings about politics of that time. â€Å"Because I was happy upon the heath. And smil’d among the winters snow, The boy in the second poem has had more experience chimney sweeping and has come to terms that there is nothing he can do about it. He puts on a brave face and gets on with it, when compared to Tom Dacre in Chimney Sweeper 1 he doesn’t have the naivety that Tom had. Once again I think Blake had another meaning that poor people represented as the chimney sweep are happy and they smile in society. â€Å"They cloth’d me in the clothes of death, And taught me to sing the notes of woe.† The parents of the chimney sweeper in this poem clothed there son and sentenced him to death when they decided to sell him to a master sweep. They made the boy cry when he had to leave and now he is alone and knows it. I think that Blake had another deeper meaning. I think the chimney sweeper represented poor people, they got clothed in the clothes of death by the chimney sweepers parents represented as the government. In the final stanza Blake goes on the attack at the church and the government he does this by provoking anger towards them through the unfairness of it all. â€Å"And because I am happy & dance and sing, They think they have done me no injury, In these lines Blake is how the chimney sweeper feels after his ordeal, putting on the front everything is ok when it is not. Going deeper into what Blake is trying to bring across is representation that the chimney sweep is the poor people again. The final two lines Blake attacks the church and the government, the chimney sweep is wise and is experienced and realises that the church and government exploit the poor so that they can make their own heaven out of the money from the society. And we gone to praise God & his Priest and King, Who make up a heaven of our misery†

The Great Gatsby And The American Dream Essay - 1494 Words

The truth About the American Dream the American dream is a concept of going to rags to riches, and working hard to achieve it. The American Dream was brought to light in the 1920s during the golden age. The Great Gatsby† written by F. Scott Fitzgerald, is about nick, a bond man, who tries to work his way up in the social class system. Along the way he meets Jay Gatsby, and The Buchanan’s, both of which are already upper class, though got there in several ways. In â€Å"The Great Gatsby†, F. Scott Fitzgerald, through his characters, reveals that the American dream only results in dissatisfaction rather than the happiness, despite what it promises. In â€Å"The Great Gatsby†, Daisy is a character who is shown to have wealth but is still†¦show more content†¦This is showing her dissatisfaction, as she has so much money that she was able to afford to go do anything and everything she wants, therefore running out of things to do, causing her to not be able to do anything else. This is quote is important because it shows how she feels about what she has accomplished and how she feels right now about her life. In conclusion, daisy is a character that should have a satisfied life due to her wealth, but because of her wealth, she became bored, causing her to be dissatisfied. Gatsby is a man of wealth, but no matter how much money he has, will never be happy. Gatsby is a character who is always reaching for something new and never is happy with what he has. Nick is on his way home when he sees, [Gatsby] stretched out his arms toward the dark water in a curious way, and far as I was from him I could have sworn he was trembling. Involuntarily I glanced seaward--and distinguished nothing except a single green light, minute and far away, that might have been the end of a dock. When I looked once more for Gatsby he had vanished, and I was alone again in the unquiet darkness† (25-26). Gatsby sees the green light on the edge of daisys dock. Gatsby had once been in a relationship with daisy before he went to war, after he got back, she was off with someone else. He appears to be reaching for her and trying to get her back into his life before he left for the war,Show MoreRelated The Great Gatsby - The American Dream Essay767 Words   |  4 Pagesmade by Ma rius Bewley’s critical essay â€Å"Scott Fitzgerald: The Apprentice Fiction†, â€Å"Fitzgerald’s ultimate subject is the character of the American Dream in which, in their respective ways, his principle heroes are all trapped.†, can be justified through Scott Fitzgerald’s novel The Great Gatsby and his short story â€Å"Winter Dreams†. 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He paints a picture makingRead MoreThe Great Gatsby American Dream Essay1940 Words   |  8 PagesKaylie Skoumal Mrs. Sabers English II 6 October 2017 Destruction of an American Dream â€Å"The American Dream is that any man or woman, despite of his or her background, can change their circumstances and rise as high as they are willing to work† (Fabrizio Moreira Quotes). Jay Gatsby believed that he could achieve his American Dream of being successful and marrying Daisy by working extremely hard in his lifetime. He labored to make a great amount of money through a disreputable way with Meyer Wolfshiem. HisRead MoreEssay on The Corruption of the American Dream in The Great Gatsby1302 Words   |  6 Pages On April 10, 1925 F. Scott Fitzgerald published The Great Gatsby, a novel that would later become one of the best known pieces of classic literature in history. However, at the time of its publication, Gatsby was fairly unpopular ad the reviews were never consistent. 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ScottRead MoreThe Great Gatsby American Dream Essay1496 Words   |  6 Pagesforward in his head like a blind man knocking over the solid furniture.† All people have their own big dreams circulating their minds and a sort of desperation to achieve them, no matter where they grow up or live, but where someone comes from might influence what it is they’re longing for. In his novel, â€Å"The Great Gatsby,† he demonstrates the delusive and far-fetched concept of the American dream in men of West Egg compared to those of the Valley of Ashes and East Egg by describing the different lifestylesRead MoreThe American Dream In The Great Gatsby Essay1158 Words   |  5 Pagesâ€Å"It is the elusive Gatsby, the cynical idealist, who embodies America in all of its messy glory.† Clearly as Adam Cohen asserts in his New York Times article â€Å"Jay Gatsby, Dreamer, Criminal, Jazz Age Rogue, Is a Man for Our Times†, this phenomenon is indeed true in that the American Dream is presented in F. 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